The Market Is Expected To Basically Digest The Decline Of Shanghai Copper Finish

Shanghai copper rose and fell on Thursday, and the intraday market pared its gains. It closed slightly lower in late trading.Thhn wire prices expected to drop.The main monthly 2210 contract opened at 62,290 yuan / ton, and closed at 62,430 yuan / ton in daily trading, down 120 yuan / ton, or 0.19%. After the rate hike boots landed, the metal weakened for a time, but the market had basically digested this expectation before. In addition, the futures market atmosphere recovered, non-ferrous metals have recovered their declines, and the decline in Shanghai copper has narrowed.

In terms of spot, on September 22, the transaction price of spot 1# copper in the Yangtze River was reported at 63170-63210 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton; premium 640-680, down 120 yuan / ton. In the spot market, the premium was lowered but still at a high level. Holders wanted to exchange cash on rallies, but the mood of receivers to stock up was not obvious, and the overall transaction performance was average.

In terms of inventories, as of September 22, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories increased by 4,775 tons to 122,775 tons, or 4.05%; London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories rose to the highest level since July 11. As of September 22, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had 6,686 tons of copper futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1,260 tons from the previous day.

In terms of supply, according to the latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global copper market will be in short supply by 490,000 tons from January to July 2022, and will be in short supply by 283,000 tons in 2021. Refined copper output in July was 2,015,500 tons, and demand was 2,176,300 tons. In the first seven months of this year, global mine copper production was 12.45 million tonnes, up 1.4% from a year earlier. During the same period, the global refined copper output was 14.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, of which China and India increased by 203,000 tons and 38,000 tons respectively.

In terms of demand, from January to July 2022, global copper demand was 14.78 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year. China's apparent demand was 8.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. China's reportable semi-manufactured product output rose 2.6%. Refined copper production in the United States was 587,400 tons, an increase of 28,700 tons from the same period last year. In addition, the actual performance of the spot trading market is not satisfactory, and the transactions of downstream enterprises are unsatisfactory. At present, it has entered the end of the golden nine, and consumption has shown a "two-layered sky" compared with the same period. However, the market still has expectations for the golden nine and the silver ten, and the related support in the terminal is superimposed. The policy is relatively clear, therefore, consumer demand is still in a positive trend.

On the whole, after the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, there was a "landing market", and the US dollar rose to a 20-year high. After digesting expectations, the atmosphere of the superimposed futures market has recovered, and the non-ferrous market has generally turned red. Shanghai copper also recovered some of its losses after falling under pressure. In addition, under the collision of strong fundamentals and weak macro, the market focuses more on weak macro. Therefore, the overall center of Shanghai copper has moved down slightly.